Energy: ENEA analysis 2025, Italy’s energy transition stalls as emissions, consumption remain flat

Italy’s energy transition showed little progress in 2025, as greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption remained broadly unchanged, in line with trends observed across the EU. Prices are still significantly higher than in the pre-crisis period of 2022 (gas +70%, electricity +100%). These are the main findings of ENEA’s Analysis of the Italian Energy System for 2025, which also highlights a slight increase in renewables (+1%), still far below PNIEC targets (-20%). Preliminary data for the first quarter of 2026 show both CO₂ emissions and energy consumption declining by 1%.

“Final energy consumption in the EU remains at 2023 levels, while in Italy it is slightly higher. To meet the Energy Efficiency Directive (EED) target in the EU-27, an average annual reduction in consumption of 3% would be required. Italy’s PNIEC sets a less ‘ambitious’ target than the EED, which would require a reduction of less than 2% per year,” explains Francesco Gracceva, who leads the ENEA analysis.

As regards energy sources, 2025 consumption shows an increase in gas use (+2%), due to colder temperatures and higher demand from power plants, although still 14% below the 2017–2022 average and in line with EU regulations. Oil consumption in transport remains stable but declines in petrochemicals. Coal use drops sharply (-16%), returning to minimal levels in electricity generation. Despite a 1 percentage point increase, the share of renewables in final consumption stands just above 20%, compared with the 25% target set by the PNIEC. Growth was driven mainly by photovoltaics (+25%), now accounting for more than one-sixth of total electricity generation.

Sectoral consumption shows a slight increase in transport (+0.5%), while remaining stable in the residential and services sector. Electricity demand remains at 2024 levels, confirming that electrification in final consumption proceeds at a very slow pace.

As for prices, the spread between electricity prices on the Italian power exchange (annual average of €116/MWh) and those in major European markets appears to have stabilized at historically high levels (€90/MWh in Germany, €65/MWh in Spain, €61/MWh in France). The gap between gas prices on the Italian market and the main European hub (TTF) has also widened again.

“A largely stagnant energy scenario, now once again disrupted by a new energy crisis triggered by the war in Iran and, in particular, the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, through which more than one-fifth of global oil and about 6% of crude oil (but over 10% of refined products), as well as 9% of LNG bound for Europe, transit—resulting in significant price impacts,” adds Gracceva. “For March alone, the cost of imported gas is estimated to exceed €2 billion, at least €0.5 billion more than it would have been at the average price of the previous twelve months. For oil as well, a conservative estimate points to additional import costs of over €0.5 billion.”

The extreme difficulty of Italy’s energy transition is confirmed by the new historical low of the ENEA ISPRED index, down 30% compared to 2024, with significant criticalities on the decarbonization front. “To meet the 2030 target set by the PNIEC, emissions would need to be reduced by 6% per year over the next five years,” explains Gracceva. “Italy is off track both for oil (+2% versus a -5% PNIEC target) and for renewables, particularly in transport, where they account for only 10% of consumption compared to the expected 15%,” he concludes.

The Analysis also highlighted mixed trends in low-carbon technologies: Italy’s trade deficit in the sector narrowed to below 4 billion euros in 2025, from more than 5 billion previously, supported by strong growth in exports of plug-in hybrid vehicles, particularly to the United States. However, the balance worsened for fully electric vehicles, with the deficit exceeding 2.3 billion euros, while no improvement was recorded for solar technologies, leaving the overall gains fragile and concentrated in a limited number of segment.